In what can only be described as a shrewd move, Scott Walker pulled a surprise rabbit out of his hat and left challenger Mayor Tom Barrett with no comeback. The jobs numbers are more accurate, but doesn't reflect how the state compares nationally. But Barrett's been focusing on the older method of job counting, and now has to shift messaging. For supposedly having very little lead time, Walker was ready, and he strategically place his new ads in the very newscasts announcing his new jobs numbers. Killer, especially the wise ass intro:
The problem I have with the Barrett campaign; what were they doing when given a day and a half lead time on this? Channel3000 did a great job looking at the amazing change in momentum for Walker, when you consider the Marquette polls 6 point Walker advantage over Barrett.
Hmm- did you see Walker swallow hard?
ReplyDeleteBoth of them are suspect.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers are reported by Wisconsin to the feds, is my understanding. But I'm pretty sure they are subject to revision by the BLS.
ReplyDeleteThe main issue is that they are rather useless numbers, especially for December. They report the number of people working for, or receiving pay for, the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. So the numbers include all the part time employees hired for the holidays. People who work 2 jobs are counted as 2 people working, people with 3 jobs are 3 people working. And hiring was much better in the holiday season in 2011 than in 2010.
But it is only a snapshot, which is why it is not used to show trends, I guess. I don't know if the BLS tweaks the numbers to reduce the seasonal effects or not,
The other issue is that these numbers do not remove out of state workers from the mix. So anyone from Minnesota who is working in Wisconsin, for instance, would be counted.
Laura Dresser at Center on Wisconsin Strategies would know. Too bad no one is talking to her.