Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Burke and Walker/Happ and Schimel races even, majority want to improve ObamaCare.

Here's the latest Marquette Law School Poll, still showing a dead heat between Mary Burke and Scott Walker, and closer race for the attorney general. You'll also notice how Wisconsinites who aren't happy with the Affordable Care Act actually want to overwhelmingly improve it, not repeal it. jsonline:
Scott Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke are tied among registered voters at 46%.
 Among likely voters, Walker leads Burke 49%-46%.

Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ, the Democratic candidate, led Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel, a Republican, by 39% to 38%, among registered voters.

Among likely voters, Schimel led Happ, 42% to 41%.

Poll director Charles Franklin noted that in the latest poll, "There is a substantial movement among Republicans to be more enthused and more likely to vote."

42% said Wisconsin was lagging other states in creating jobs, 37% about the same and 13% faster. In August, 48% said the state was lagging others.

On the state budget, 41% said it was better than a few years ago, while 27% said it was worse.

54% of voters said the state was headed in the right direction, 42% said it was on the wrong track, the same as in August.

Walker's job approval was 49%, with 46% disapproving of his performance as governor.

Burke was viewed favorably by 36% of voters and unfavorably by 35%.

Walker was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 45%.

Asked if marijuana use should be legal, 46% said it should be while 51% said it should not be legal.

Photo identification to vote is favored by 51% and opposed by 35% of those polled. Franklin said, "87% of Republicans backed photo ID and 62% of Democrats opposed it. Partisan differences here quite strong but overall pretty broad support."

40% have a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act while 50% had an unfavorable view. Asked what to do with the act, 10% would keep it, 50% would improve it, 19% would replace it and 18% would repeal the measure that is known as Obamacare. 

On accepting federal dollars to expand Medicaid in the state, 61% would accept the cash, while 29% would reject the money.

Asked how to pay for highways, 30% said raise taxes, 5% said borrow money, 13% said build less while 42% said to take the money from other budgets. "Unfortunately, taking from other budgets was the easy out," Franklin said.

Support remains strong for approving a Kenosha casino, with 50% approving and 39% rejecting the proposal.
The sample leaned conservative though, and might be an "outlier." 
Franklin said. “But in the September poll, it is Republicans who have an advantage in enthusiasm. Eighty percent of Republicans said they are certain to vote in November, compared to 73 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of independents. In August, 82 percent of Democrats, 77 percent of Republicans and 68 percent of independents were certain to vote.”

Differences in partisan enthusiasm were also reflected in the composition of this month’s sample. Republicans hold a 1-percentage-point advantage among registered voters polled, with 29 percent identifying themselves as Republicans and 28 percent saying that they are Democrats. A total of 41 percent say that they are independent. This is the first time in 24 Marquette Law School Polls that Republicans have held an edge among all registered voters. Among likely voters, Republicans have a 32 percent to 28 percent advantage over Democrats, with 38 percent independent. 

“Across all Marquette polls in 2013 and 2014, Democrats have averaged a 4-point advantage among registered voters and a 3-point advantage among likely voters. It is unusual to see a 5-point net shift in partisan composition,” Franklin said. “People should be appropriately skeptical since it is always possible this sample is simply an outlier. 

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