Thursday, November 5, 2009

GOP Health Care Plan Fails. CBO Exposed as Not Grasping Plan Costs.

It took hours to uncover any details of the first CBO look at the Republicans vision of reform. Here's a quick snapshot.

The CBO also says the Republican plan would leave 52 million people uninsured in 2019, more than the 46 million uninsured today (the percentage of Americans without insurance, about 17 percent, would remain basically unchanged, CBO says.)

The plan will essentially keep the total percentage of insured individuals at around the current percentage of 83% (The Democrat’s main selling point on their version is that it will insure 96% of the population - including illegal immigrants).

CBO says the GOP provisions would cut the deficit by $68 billion over ten years, less than the Democratic bill, which cuts the deficit $104 billion over the same time frame.

Cutting to the chase: The CBO considered Health Savings Account a place where people can save. They're wrong. Premiums increase $1300 a year, deductibles increase from $5000 to $12000 as an incentive to keep monthly premiums down and if you get sick you will go broke. HSAs are an insurance con.

The other two issues: Tort reform may save doctors money, but it hasn't brought down premiums in states that enacted liability reform. The CBO recently over estimated the savings consumers would see from penalizing the victims of malpractice by limiting compensation. Sad.

Buying across state lines with little or no basic plan will lower premiums, but you will end up getting what you paid for…kind of. The small print will leave most people paying most or all of their care.

In the overall CBO estimate, everything above will lower premiums in the GOP plan, supposedly. But think about it. Giving insurers fewer regulations, dumping high risk individuals into government taxpayer high cost pools and allowing for pre-existing conditions will only result in sky rocketing costs. The CBO ignores the past behavior of insurers at our peril.

Another perspective:

Washington Independent: Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx’s claim:
Rep. Foxx claimed the Democratic plan “does not include coverage for 29 million of the 30 million people that Pelosi and President Obama say need health insurance.” She added, “take up the Republican alternative, which covers everyone.”

Next, the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the Democrats’ proposal:
By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people who are uninsured would be reduced by about 36 million, leaving about 18 million nonelderly residents uninsured (about one-third of whom would be unauthorized immigrants). Under H.R. 3962 (Democrats plan), the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 96 percent.

And here’s the CBO yesterday on the Republicans’ bill:
CBO and JCT estimate that those provisions would increase federal budget deficits by about $8 billion over the 2010-2019 period, reducing the number of nonelderly people without health insurance by about 3 million in 2019 and leaving about 52 million nonelderly residents uninsured. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage in 2019—83 percent—would be roughly in line with the current share.

Math is tough, but it doesn’t take Pythagoras to recognize that 36 million is quite a bit more than 3 million — regardless what Virginia Foxx says.

No comments:

Post a Comment