Economists Support Obama, say his plan Avoids Another Recession

Pinch me I must be dreaming. In Bloomberg News, this amazing SUPPORT for Obama’s jobs plan nearly knocked me off my chair. But will anyone else notice?

President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs plan would help avoid a return to recession by maintaining growth and pushing down the unemployment rate next year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The legislation, submitted to Congress this month, would increase gross domestic product by 0.6 percent next year and add or keep 275,000 workers on payrolls, the median estimates in the survey of 34 economists showed. The program would also lower the jobless rate by 0.2 percentage point in 2012, economists said.

The plan “prevents a contraction of the economy in the first quarter” of next year, said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston, who participated in the survey. “It leads to more retention of workers than net new hires.”

Some 13,000 jobs would be created in 2013, bringing the total to 288,000 over two years, according to the survey. Employers in the U.S. added 1.26 million workers in the past 12 months, Labor Department data show.

 Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. He said the program “very well could” forestall a recession in early 2012. “Most of all, it prevents a serious drag on the economy next year” from current programs expiring, said Brown, who estimates the Obama plan would add 0.5 percent to GDP in 2012.

A reduction in government spending, the end of the payroll- tax holiday and an expiration of extended unemployment benefits would cut GDP by 1.7 percent in 2012, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli in New York. Instead, the Obama proposal makes up for that potential loss and may add a net 0.1 percent to the economy, he estimates.

Republican Blueprint to a Dystopian Future. Don't just blame them, the Voters have spoken!!!

From Alternet: Conservatives have a legislative agenda for 2011 that will hurt your ability to get or keep a job, your neighborhood's ability to recover from the recession and this country's ability to regain its footing in the global economy. To keep conservatives from enacting policies that will kill a nascent economic recovery, progressives will have to organize against these top 10 economy killers.

1. Repeal of Health-Care Reform: Republicans have placed "repealing Obamacare" at the top of their legislative agenda for 2011. If they succeed, the economy is going to come down with multiple serious illnesses—at least 24, according to a report released this month by Rep. Peter Stark of the House Ways and Means Committee. Among them: a $143 billion increase in the deficit by losing the savings the reforms created, an increase the number of uninsured by 30 million people…

2. Diminish the Federal Government's Ability to Support Job-Creation: Since the right can't complain about inflation—there is none—the enemy is "quantitative easing," the Fed's bid to pour liquidity into the economy in hopes that fuels investment and jobs. Take away quantitative easing and there's literally nothing left in the economic policy playbook to keep the economy from slipping back into recession.

3. Slash Federal Infrastructure Spending: while countries such as China race ahead on infrastructure investment, conservative governors are being heralded as heroes for rejecting high-speed rail money and killing a rail tunnel on the nation's busiest rail corridor leading into New York City. Conservative ideologues are once again proposing to end most federal transportation spending.

4. Dismantle Medicare (and Give Seniors "Vouchers"): Ryan's voucherization of Medicare, however, would control costs not by restraining insurance companies or health-care corporations but by keeping the value of the voucher below the increase in health care costs, thus shifting increasing out-of-pocket costs onto seniors themselves. Conservatives say this means government won't be rationing care to seniors. With vouchers, seniors will forced to ration care on their own.

5. Undo Financial Reform, and Let the Predators Run

6. Support Big Oil and Kill Green Jobs: The right's mantra is that the EPA regulations will increase utility bills and kill jobs. The truth is that the regulations will create new jobs in clean-energy industries and, most importantly, save the planet. Just as Rep. Spencer Bachus thinks government should "serve the banks," conservatives would seem to be fine with EPA serving the polluters.

7. Don't Just Cut Government Waste; Cripple Government: From the beginning of the Reagan Revolution the plan was to create deficits to cripple government, not to cut “waste.” Reagan said the idea was to “cut the government’s allowance.” George W. Bush said turning Clinton’s surpluses into huge deficits was "incredibly positive news" because it would put government in "a fiscal straitjacket."

8. Amp up the Insecurity in Social Security: Conservatives have wanted to kill the New Deal for a long time. Now they have a historic window of opportunity. Unless the President and other Democrats stand up for Social Security, it’s going to be needlessly gutted in the name of “deficit reduction”—even though it doesn’t contribute to the deficit.

9. Starve Public Education: Here is an easy way to keep the rich rich and the less well-off part of the permanent underclass: continue the decades-long conservative-led assault on public education.

10. Don't Ask the Rich to Help Reduce the Deficit; Ask Low-Income Americans Instead Republicans want to make their "cutgo" scheme the law of Congress, in which new spending authorized by Congress must be offset by cuts elsewhere but cannot be offset by tax increases or fees on anyone. But new tax cuts would not have to be offset by spending reductions. That should finish off any molecule of credibility they had left on their feigned concern about the deficit.

Lucky GOP? They didn’t have to help get us out of the Recession, and then take power again during signs of the recovery!!

Before the Republican voter mandate of fiscal austerity, in the House of Representatives only by the way, let’s not forget what the Republicans are inheriting from the last two years of Democratic rule:

NY Times: Eighteen months after the recession officially ended, the government’s latest measures to bolster the economy have led many forecasters and policy makers to express new optimism that the recovery will gain substantial momentum in 2011. Economists in universities and on Wall Street have raised their growth projections for next year. Retail sales, industrial production and factory orders are on the upswing, and new claims for unemployment benefits are trending downward.

Despite persistently high unemployment, consumer confidence is improving. Large corporations are reporting healthy profits, and the Dow Jones industrial average reached a two-year high this week … economists are increasingly upbeat about the outlook, saying that while the economy in 2011 will not be strong enough to drive unemployment down significantly, it should put the United States on its soundest footing since the financial crisis started an economic tailspin three years ago.

Phillip L. Swagel, who was the Treasury Department’s chief economist during the administration of George W. Bush said, “The recovery in 2011 will be strong enough for us to see sustained job creation that will finally give Americans a tangible sense of an improving economy.”

Of course just knowing a Republican was anywhere near-by boosted consumer confidence and helped in the nation’s recovery, even before the GOP takes control of the House.

Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, said he believed his party’s gains in the midterm elections had bolstered consumer and business confidence, arguing that Republicans have advocated fiscal discipline and opposed onerous regulations and tax increases.

You remember how well Republican advocacy of fiscal discipline and onerous regulations worked leading up to the 2008 Great Recession don’t you? Especially the de-regulation part of the Wall Street crash. You don’t remember? Well I guess it’s time to put the Republicans back in charge then.  

Keep in mind what one Republican in Wisconsin said recently when asked what will happen if all the proposed tax cuts didn’t work. Will they admit the policy was wrong and reverse the cuts?

Without hesitating, the conservative lawmaker had an answer; cut spending even more. 

McCain-Palin Solution to Recession an Eye Opener.

Hardball's Chris Matthews and Vanity Fair took a look at what might have happened if the McCain-Palin adiministration had to deal with the Great Recession.

The Recession ended Last Year, Quick Work by the Obama Administration. The Pain lingers.

Repubicans Oppose Small Business Lending Program, hoping for Double Dip Recession.

Still wondering what the Republican plan is for the upcoming election? They don't include solutions, or the feeling of urgency, to bring the country back from the brink of a depression.

Liberal spin? Check out the video below from the Rachel Maddow show featuring Sen. Jeff Merkley and his proposal, opposed by Republicans, for a small business lending fund that the CBO says will bring a billion dollars over ten years.

Merkley: "There's no rational reason unless the goal is to drive the
American economy into a double dip recession."

Conservative Mob Mentality Over Fannie and Freddie Crazy and Wrong!!! Try Reading Something Just Once without screaming liberal bias.

Here's what the Journal Sentinel wrote Sunday about two Republican candidates misinformation campaign on the Bush Recession and finance reform:

Feingold's two GOP opponents, Dave Westlake and Ron Johnson, both have said they would vote no on the financial reforms. Both … said the bill fails to correct what they regard as a key factor in the financial crisis - problems with mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Westlake said that when government exercises "an artificial influence" on the marketplace, "supply and demand can't find its natural equilibrium."

After reading the story below, you'll find that Westlake is dangerously clueless, and terribly wrong about the government exercising any "artificial influence" on the marketplace.

Westlake is essentially saying that Fannie and Freddie "caused" private lenders to go rogue and rip off the government. They couldn't control their free market tendencies to make a profit and leave someone else with the defaulting loans. What did you expect from hard working unaccountable private sector lenders feeding off the trough of socialized risk?
NOTE: Link to story below is missing, probably not pasted in before being saved. Help finding this would be appreciated.

In 2000, because of a re-assessment of the housing market by HUD, anti-predatory lending rules were put into place that disallowed risky, high-cost loans from being credited toward affordable housing goals. In 2004, these rules were dropped and high-risk loans were again counted toward affordable housing goals.

The intent was that Fannie Mae's enforcement of the underwriting standards they maintained for standard conforming mortgages would also provide safe and stable means of lending to buyers who did not have prime credit. As Daniel Mudd, then President and CEO of Fannie Mae, testified in 2007, instead the agency's underwriting requirements drove business into the arms of the private mortgage industry who marketed aggressive products without regard to future consequences: "We also set conservative underwriting standards for loans we finance to ensure the homebuyers can afford their loans over the long term. We sought to bring the standards we apply to the prime space to the subprime market with our industry partners primarily to expand our services to underserved families.

"Unfortunately, Fannie Mae-quality, safe loans in the sub-prime market did not become the standard, and the lending market moved away from us. Borrowers were offered a range of loans that layered teaser rates, interest-only, negative amortization and payment options and low-documentation requirements on top of floating-rate loans. In early 2005 we began sounding our concerns about this "layered-risk" lending. For example, Tom Lund, the head of our single-family mortgage business, publicly stated, "One of the things we don't feel good about right now as we look into this marketplace is more homebuyers being put into programs that have more risk. Those products are for more sophisticated buyers. Does it make sense for borrowers to take on risk they may not be aware of? Are we setting them up for failure? As a result, we gave up significant market share to our competitors. "

What happened was Fannie bought (backed) those risky loans from the private lenders, raising the risk level to the point of collapse.

From Fox News: Because the federal government took over Fannie and Freddie, that means the taxpayers own all those homes, and own or guarantee the mortgages for 31 million more.

How did this happen? During the Clinton years, the federal government set out to expand homeownership to low income people. Fannie and Freddie encouraged that by buying up mortgage loans from the original lenders.

Knowing they could dump their loans to Fannie and Freddie, lenders were perfectly willing to make shaky ones -- with no money down (or teaser rates) or no documentation of income, known as liar's loans.

That spread the practice of weaker loans and, some argue, laid the groundwork for the recent financial meltdown.

Ryan is Rarely, if ever, mentioned in articles about Obama's Visit to Depressed Racine. "No Fault" Ryan?

Has anyone noticed the lack of interest to bring 1st District Rep. Paul Ryan to Racine and make the case for Bucyrus International or even meet with President Obama when he visits?

Obama invited the public to attend a round table discussion on the economy in Racine, a city suffering under 14.2 percent unemployment, second highest in the state and nearly double its jobless rate two years ago.

Has anyone noticed that this is Paul Ryan's district, and the end result of the recent Republican policies that brought about the Great Recession. Not Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus (who) said:

It was a “dangerous move” for the president to come to Wisconsin, given that the state has lost tens of thousands of jobs since the stimulus passed. “I think he’s going to be met with despair and disgust when he’s in Racine. It just personified failure when he comes to that area. … This is sort of like being witness to a bad accident.”

Again, this is Ryan's district. Paul Ryan. "Road Map" Ryan. Rocknetroots pointed out Priebus' not so complimentary description of Ryan's district as "a bad accident." WOW!!! I wonder how voters in Racine/Kenosha/Janesville are taking that news flash?

My conservative friend called me about Obama's visit and during the conversation wondered if Sen. Russ Feingold would dare show up and address the area's problems. He never mentioned Ryan. It didn't even occur to him. But under Ryan's oversight:

The city … is struggling with a loss of manufacturing jobs … Chrysler is closing its engine plant in nearby Kenosha and General Motors last year shut down its plant in Janesville, about an hour to the west.

Ryan is completely off the hook for supporting the bank bailouts and turning his back on Chrysler and the American auto industry, not to mention supporting the policies that encouraged the loss of manufacturing in Wisconsin. You would think even the local tea party would have noticed:

Nancy Milholland, 47, an unemployed sales manager and organizer of the Racine County Tea Party, said “We feel ignored. This administration is on the wrong side of the voters and it’s like they’re not listening.”

Did Nancy said anything over the last ten years to Rep. Ryan? Nancy is a little too late in demanding freedom and liberty when she lost after the economy tanked. If you don't have a job or money, you don't really have those symbolic constitutional guarantees.

Texas, Republican Party, Over the Top Fringe Platform to Ban Gays.

The 2010 Texas Republican Party platform proposal would ban homosexuality and advocates jail sentences for those who issue same-sex marriage licenses.

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Here it Comes: The Second Great Depression, and long term Joblessness

Think I'm over reacting? Not at all. I've been worried about the "deficit cutting," not the "spending our way out of a recession" plan for Europe, to pull themselves out of the last Great Recession. It's the exact opposite reaction we should have taken from the Great Depression.

Here's a post in the Huffington Post:

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has issued perhaps the most frightening prediction for the future of the global economy … Krugman worries that a move toward austerity by world governments -- near-term budget-slashing to curb deficits -- will plunge the economy into a "third depression." On the heels of last week's G20 meeting in Toronto, where world governments pledged to halve deficits by 2013, Krugman is deeply concerned that there just won't be enough stimulus in the economy to recover from the prolonged downturn.

"We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost -- to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs -- will nonetheless be immense. And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world -- most recently at last weekend's deeply discouraging G-20 meeting -- governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending."

Krugman isn't alone in his fear that the world economy is becoming increasingly precarious. The Wall Street Journal noted that members of the Federal Reserve are in private planning for the possibility of a double-dip recession in America -- a concern shared by MarketWatch's in-house economist. The job picture in America certainly isn't comforting, and the mounting ranks of the jobless may lend some support to Krugman's pro-stimulus thesis. This chart, from the Saint Louis Federal Reserve, shows that long-term unemployment is skyrocketing:

For political reasons, the GOBP will hold off on the tax breaks for small business and unemployment benefits to increase the chances of another recession and possible depression to gain seats in November. Winning elections is the name of their game and I fear they have already won that gamble in the mind of voters.

Republican State Governments are Never to Blame. It's Always the Democrats.

It's funny how in state gubernatorial races, Democratic governors are to blame for the local economic downturn. But in national congressional races, Republican governors are off the hook and the victims of a Democratic congress that can't mop up the conservative mess fast enough for the folks back home. How does that make sense? Check out the ad below by Americancrossroads:



What seems like bad gubernatorial leadership and an irresponsible Republican state legislature, American Cross Roads wants to shift the blame to the Democratic Congress. Poor Nevada, how will their failed job creation and failed economic Republican theories of government ever have a chance when Washington DC keeps getting in their way?:

While Reid takes credit for taxpayer-funded government projects, we point out the real impact of the Reid/Obama economic agenda on most Nevadans: record foreclosures, falling housing prices, and the second highest unemployment rate in the nation. That’s just one reason why Reid can’t seem to buy any love in his home state, despite spending $10 million of his own political cash, and untold billions of our taxpayer dollars to make himself popular.

Yes, stopping another Great Depression is one way to make yourself popular, if not at least responsible and accountable.

Ryan continues to Ignore the Final Devastating Criticism of his "Road Map" Disaster.

Peddling his snake oil solution to America's economic problems, using a CBO report filled with caveats and disclaimers, Ryan is convinced no one will notice the final report on his plan. Check it out here.

Give credit to Upfront's Mike Gousha (Goo-shay) for bringing it up, even though he gave the impression the "Road Map" criticism was pure opinion, and not the hard cold facts. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities looked at the tax implications of Ryan's "Road Map to a Dickensian America" and point by point smashed his screwy arguments. Video blocked by Hearts Corp. even though it's news and relevant to the story. And by the way, where are the tea party protesters with there primary candidate for Ryan's job? Ryan voted for the TARP:

Long Island Press Excerpt: Bennett has a lifetime rating of 84 percent from the American Conservative Union, but was targeted by tea partyers for voting in favor of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bank bailout in 2008.

Ryan Blames Greece while ignoring U.S. Role in Global Meltdown.

Rep. Paul Ryan simply forgot how Greece and the rest of Europe was thrown into economic chaos due to his parties "free market" deregulation of Wall Street and reckless spending. It all started with Reagan, but took off when they took power of congress in 1995. We wouldn't be talking about any of this if the U.S. hadn't cause the near global depression.

And yes it's a global economy, so ignoring our role in destabilizing our trading partners and blaming them, is typical of Ryan and his fellow irresponsible Republicans.

Video Blocked by Hearst Corp.