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Thursday, January 6, 2011

Dismantling the GOP and Paul Ryan's Arguments against Health Care Reform.

Ezra Klein on the Republican arguments against health care reform:
John Boehner and Paul Ryan's assertions that CBO was given incorrect assumptions when scoring the health care bill. Specifically cited as phony scoring is:
1) $115 billion implementation costs left out
2) Double counting of social security payroll taxes
3) Class Act premiums
4) Medicare Cuts
5) Doc Fix

1) No, the $115 billion wasn't left out. The $115 billion isn't "implementation" but "discretionary spending." And most of that spending predates the bill. The exact amount it already accounts for is $86 billion. What's left is optional spending.
2) CBO doesn't double count. You can read Paul Ryan admitting that CBO doesn't double count in this interview. Double counting is an accusation thrown at the administration's rhetoric. But the CBO, which doesn't make claims on Medicare's solvency, isn't double counting that money. So no, this has no bearing on their estimate. If you want to read more on this, head here.
3) CLASS Act premiums: The CLASS Act is a program to help disabled adults without putting them in nursing homes. According to the Congressional Budget Office, it will slightly reduce deficits in years 1 through 20, and then slightly increase them starting in the third decade. But in a world in which the health-care saves trillions of dollars in the third decade, wiping out the tens of billions CLASS is projected to cost. Here's FactCheck.org's article on the subject.
4) Medicare Cuts. Yes, there are a variety of cuts made to Medicare in the bill. But I'm amused to see it on my reader's list: The Medicare cuts are a big part of the reason the bill saves money. They're fiscally responsible in the extreme. But because they're unpopular, the GOP mentions them in the same breath as the bill's supposed fiscal irresponsibility.
5) The doc fix is not part of health-care reform. This is both the most unfair of the GOP's arguments, and the most annoying to rebut, as it's fairly complicated. But here's the short version: In 1997, the Republican Chairman Rep. Bill Thomas, added a provision to Medicare that cut doctor pay if growth exceeded a certain formula. The formula was flawed and the provision, which was expected to require modest cuts, suddenly began requiring huge cuts that would've sent doctors fleeing. So the Republican Congress began passing bills that kept the automatic cuts from going into place. When health-care reform was starting, House Democrats broached a permanent fix, but the GOP, in a sudden and opportunistic outbreak of fiscal responsibility, wouldn't let them undo the GOP's mistake unless they also offset the cost of the GOP's mistake. So House Democrats dropped it from health-care reform. Republicans then decided that this meant the doc fix was part of the cost of health-care reform, but this was transparently false: The problem predated the health-care reform bill, and needed to be fixed whether or not there was a health-care reform bill. If you follow their logic, this means that the cost of the doc fix should be added to their repeal bill, and in that case, their bill increases the deficit by $540 billion, not $240 billion. But they don't actually believe the argument they're making on this subject and neither do I, so I'm not going to try to get you to believe that. If you're a glutton for punishment and want to read more about this, head here.

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